MAP Down 81.19%, DAP Down 95.33%
Customs data show China’s cumulative monoammonium phosphate (MAP) exports in January–July 2026 at 113,000 tonnes, down 487,900 tonnes or 81.19% year on year. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) contracted harder still: cumulative exports of 73,900 tonnes, down 1,509,400 tonnes or 95.33% year on year.
Monthly figures are more telling. July MAP exports were 400 tonnes, down 47.62% month on month and 99.87% year on year, at an average export price of USD 1,092.85/t; DAP exports were zero in July, against 55,000 tonnes in June. SCI99 notes that under tight export controls, DAP has recorded only scattered exports in January, February and June so far in 2026.
This round of controls began on 14 March and expires on 31 August, with normal export declarations resuming from 1 September. The article Phosphate Fertiliser Exports Resume Declaration on 1 September noted that the easing still comes with “licence plus annual quota” management.
Exports Fall, Domestic Consumption Rises
While the export channel was shut, domestic apparent consumption moved up. July MAP apparent consumption was 965,100 tonnes, up 0.08% month on month and 34.81% year on year; the January–July total was 6,662,900 tonnes, up 9.59% year on year. July DAP apparent consumption was 905,800 tonnes, up 39.33% month on month and 266.53% year on year; the January–July total was 6,442,300 tonnes, up 6.98% year on year.
Port inventories confirm the same shift. At the end of July, MAP stocks at major domestic ports stood at 0.00 tonnes, down 10,000 tonnes year on year; DAP stocks were 29,500 tonnes, down 220,500 tonnes or 88.20% year on year. Cargo was not piling up at ports waiting for ships; it went to the domestic market instead.
Finished product prices followed downward. The guidance price for Hubei 55% powdered MAP is RMB 4,450/t, with mainstream prices easing to RMB 4,250–4,300/t and some low-end material already at RMB 4,200/t; 73% industrial-grade MAP is RMB 7,000/t with room to negotiate; 64% DAP is RMB 4,800–4,850/t ex-works in Central China and RMB 4,950/t delivered guidance in North China, with deals running RMB 50/t below the guidance price.
Nitrogen Up, Phosphate Down
In the same customs dataset, the nitrogen series moved the other way. January–July ammonium sulphate exports totalled 11,476,200 tonnes, up 3.97% year on year and still the largest fertiliser export by volume; ammonium chloride reached 1,283,200 tonnes, up 1.50%; urea reached 906,900 tonnes, up 40.74%, moving up to fifth place. Synthetic ammonia exports for January–July were 814,400 tonnes, up 728,300 tonnes or 844.93% year on year, the largest increase of any product.
SCI99 expects ammonium sulphate exports to keep growing in August (forecast at 2.0–2.4 million tonnes), synthetic ammonia export growth to slow gradually, and phosphate fertiliser exports to await policy direction. After 15 September only self-disciplined exporters will be allowed to submit ammonium sulphate for inspection, and declared volumes are expected to narrow.
International Market: Chinese Material Absent, Quotes Lose Their Reference Value
Because the export inspection window closed in mid-March, China’s nominal DAP FOB quotes of USD 880–915/t are mostly bonded cargo transshipped from other markets, and Longzhong Information explicitly warns that these quotes should not be used as a transaction reference. Elsewhere over the same period: Tampa in the United States at USD 814–855/t, Russian Baltic/Black Sea at USD 828–850/t, Tunisia at USD 905–920/t and Morocco at USD 874–935/t; India at USD 905–920/t CFR, where the autumn fertiliser subsidy still leaves an inverted spread of about USD 300/t against the import price, and the Indian government has introduced subsidies on sulphur and sulphuric acid imports. Brazilian MAP prices fell to USD 840–850/t CFR, with buyer indications already at USD 830/t.
For MAP, Baltic FOB was USD 794–835/t, Morocco USD 837–920/t and Saudi Arabia USD 826–845/t.
What It Means for Phosphate Rock Procurement
- Domestic phosphate fertiliser output is holding up phosphate rock demand. Rising apparent consumption shows capacity has shifted to the domestic market, so downstream demand for phosphate rock has not collapsed; that is the basis for current price stability.
- The export restart brings only an incremental gain at first. What resumed on 1 September is inspection and customs clearance; order negotiation, port consolidation and loading all take time, so actual shipments depend on how the quota and licence rules are implemented.
- Cost pressure is easing. Sulphur prices have fallen sharply recently, with the mainstream reference quote for granular sulphur at Yangtze River ports down RMB 1,350/t week on week, easing cost pressure on phosphate fertiliser and at the same time removing some of the push behind finished product prices.
- Change the metrics you track. Next watch actual fourth-quarter export shipments, phosphate fertiliser operating rates, and whether the price pass-through from sulphur to phosphoric acid continues down the chain.
Sources: SCI99, “January–July Exports: Nitrogen Fertiliser Exports Rise While Phosphate Fertiliser Exports Fall” (2 September 2026); SunSirs PriceSeek alert, 4 September; customs data compilation in Phosphate Fertiliser Monthly (August 2026); Longzhong Information market review, 4 September. Export and apparent consumption figures follow customs definitions.
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